The Sad Reality: Without Drastic Change, Civilization Collapse is Inevitable

Introduction

Our civilization is heading for collapse. Not due to a single external catastrophe, but because of the accumulated weight of its own failures. The crises we face are self-inflicted, converging into a perfect storm that we cannot escape without a radical shift in direction.

In this article, I explain why our current trajectory leads to self-destruction and why those in power are either unwilling or incapable of taking meaningful action. This is the first in a four-part series that explores one of the greatest paradoxes of our time: how to reconcile humanity’s limitless desires with the finite resources of our planet.

The solution to this paradox is the central theme of my upcoming book, The Only Path: How to Prevent the Collapse of Civilization When Governments Won’t and Businesses Can’t. If you’d like to receive free chapters as I write them, please subscribe.

1. We’re Making The Planet Unlivable

We are facing ecological collapse, and unless we act decisively now, the planet will become uninhabitable for future generations.

1.1. Ecological Overshoot: Living Beyond Our Means

Since the early 1970s, we have been in ecological overshoot, consuming more resources each year than the Earth can regenerate. Humanity currently needs resources of 1.7 Earths to sustain itself.

Most people aspire to have more, not less. Therefore, this trend is expected to worsen as we continue to extract and consume more. For example, if everyone lived like the average American today, we would need 5 Earths to sustain our lifestyle.

1.2. Planetary Boundaries: The Crumbling Foundations

Fifty years of relentless overconsumption have taken their toll. Human activities have altered planetary systems so profoundly that we are now breaching six out of nine planetary boundaries—the essential limits that sustain life on Earth. In short, we are no longer within a safe operating space for humanity.

1.3. Global Tipping Points: The Point of No Return

Even worse, we are rapidly approaching global tipping points—thresholds beyond which environmental changes will become self-perpetuating and irreversible, no matter what we do. While some effects may take centuries to fully unfold, once these tipping points are crossed, there is no turning back.

With the current global warming levels, we are already within the uncertainty range for five tipping points. Just 1.5-2°C of warming puts us at risk of crossing six or more.

1.4. Carbon Budget: The Ticking Clock

Until recently, we thought we have about five years before we put enough carbon dioxide into the atmosphere to make 1.5°C of warming inevitable. Beyond this point, we will be locked into temperature rises that will trigger cascading climate impacts, including rising sea levels, extreme weather events, and massive biodiversity loss.

However, latest studies suggest we’ve already crossed the 1.5°C threshold and, if anything, our climate models grossly underestimate how fast the global climate is warming.

1.5. The Consequences of Inaction

All of this means, if there is any window left for meaningful action, it is closing extremely fast. If we fail to act now, catastrophic climate shifts will become unstoppable.

Short-term (0+ years)

Environmental Impact:

• Extreme weather events (heatwaves, floods, storms, droughts)
• Localized crop failures and water shortages

Economic & Societal Impact:

• Property damage and supply chain disruptions
• Sharp rises in food and energy prices
• Short-term displacement, migration, and social unrest
• Overwhelmed local infrastructure and emergency services
• Localized conflicts and cascading failures

Medium-term (10+ years)

Environmental Impact:

• Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events
• Regional sea-level rise affecting coastal cities
• Widespread ecosystem degradation and reduced agricultural productivity
• More compound events (e.g., simultaneous heat and drought)

Economic & Societal Impact:

• Prolonged economic downturns, rising debt levels, and financial crises
• Declining labor productivity and higher adaptation costs
• Deepening social inequality, resource conflicts, and mass displacement
• Overlapping environmental and economic shocks straining state capacity
• Breakdown of regional governance and social safety nets

Long-term (100+ years)

Environmental Impact:

• Crossing irreversible tipping points (e.g., collapse of major ice sheets, loss of biodiversity)
• Runaway warming and disruption of key planetary systems (e.g., ocean currents like the AMOC)
• Massive, permanent sea-level rise and chronic water scarcity

Economic & Societal Impact:

• Loss of habitable land and collapse of global food production
• Enduring economic stagnation and loss of critical infrastructure
• Long-lasting social fragmentation, persistent mass migration, and chronic poverty
• System-wide collapse of ecological and economic systems that support modern civilization
• Erosion of fundamental building blocks (e.g., stable climate, reliable resources, effective institutions), leading to societal collapse

2. Society on the Brink: The Economic & Social Breakdown

Society is collapsing from within under the weight of economic instability, rising extremism and global tensions.

Modern economies are built on the assumption of perpetual growth. Governments rely on continuous economic growth to service national debt, businesses need expanding markets to maintain profitability, and social stability depends on economic opportunity.

When growth stalls, a chain reaction begins—unemployment rises, debt becomes unmanageable, economic inequality widens, and basic services become unaffordable. Mass layoffs lead to waves of homelessness, healthcare systems become overwhelmed, and social unrest escalates into violent protests or political extremism. Nations facing economic collapse may resort to authoritarian measures or conflict over dwindling resources, further destabilizing global order.

2.1. Population Decline and Aging: The Collapse in Slow-Motion

Today, two-thirds of the global population lives in a country or area where fertility is below replacement level. This means a declining population and a larger percentage of old people.

The projections for many countries are downright catastrophic. Take China for example. The country is expected to lose over half its total population by the end of the century, while the share of people in productive age will drop from 63% in 2024 to just 43%.

The populations of 61 countries are already declining.

This demographic shift is a ticking time bomb for economic stability, as fewer workers struggle to sustain the financial burden of an exploding elderly population. Pension systems inch toward collapse, public healthcare costs spiral out of control, and productivity stagnates as labor shortages paralyze industries.

Additionally, as aging populations shift from spending to saving, consumer demand plummets, triggering a deflationary spiral that chokes economic growth. Entire sectors wither, leading to mass business closures, widespread layoffs, and plummeting real estate values.

Cities shrink, once-thriving urban centers become hollowed-out relics. Governments, unable to generate sufficient tax revenue, slash public services to the bone. The world faces a slow-motion economic implosion where entire generations are left with no viable path forward.

2.2. AI Takeover: The Death of Human Labor

A McKinsey study predicts that 400–800 million jobs could vanish by 2030.

It is not inconceivable that, in the near future, AI will surpass humans in every job, making labor completely obsolete.

At that point, billions will be left without work, forcing governments to choose between universal welfare or total collapse. The wealth generated by AI will concentrate in the hands of those who own the technology, widening the gap between the ultra-rich and a new underclass of the economically irrelevant.

With traditional economies unable to function, consumer demand will plummet, industries will crumble, and governments will be pushed into desperate measures to prevent total societal breakdown. The rich will be expected to pay for everybody and their choice will determine how many will live and how.

2.3. Deglobalization: The Great Unraveling

For decades, globalization has fueled economic expansion, intertwining markets and supply chains across the world. However, rising nationalism, trade wars, and geopolitical instability are shattering this interconnected system, ushering in an era of chaotic deglobalization. Countries are retreating inward, prioritizing domestic industries over global cooperation, but this shift is already proving disastrous.

Deglobalization is leading to crippling supply chain disruptions, skyrocketing production costs, and economic freefall. Essential goods become scarce, trade-dependent economies spiral into recession, and nations scramble for control over dwindling resources. What begins as economic fragmentation quickly escalates into geopolitical conflict, with nations waging trade wars, imposing sanctions, and, ultimately, engaging in direct confrontations over critical materials such as energy, food, and rare minerals. The unraveling of globalization is not just an economic inconvenience—it is a harbinger of economic collapse, resource wars, and global instability.

2.4. The Wealth Divide: Rising Inequality and Class Warfare

Economic disparity has reached historic levels. The richest 1% now control 36% of global wealth, while billions struggle with stagnating wages and rising living costs. This growing inequality is undermining social stability and weakening democracy.

As wealth becomes more concentrated, economic mobility disappears, fueling resentment and unrest. People who feel left behind are more likely to support radical political movements, leading to social and political instability. Meanwhile, the super-rich use their wealth to influence policies, further entrenching inequality and blocking reforms that could help the majority.

If inequality continues to rise unchecked, social unrest will become unavoidable, and economic growth will stagnate as the majority of people struggle to afford basic goods and services.

2.5. The Debt Bomb: A Financial System on the Edge

The global financial system is more fragile than ever, built on excessive debt, speculative bubbles, and growing economic disparities. Governments and corporations rely on continuous credit expansion to sustain economies, but these strategies create massive systemic risks.

Debt is exploding worldwide, with global liabilities in 2024 at a new record high of $318 trillion. Nations have become trapped in a cycle of borrowing, with no clear way to repay their obligations. Meanwhile, speculative bubbles in housing, stock markets, and cryptocurrency make economies vulnerable to sudden crashes.

A major financial meltdown could lead to mass unemployment, business failures, and political upheaval. When the next crisis occurs, governments may no longer have the tools to stabilize the economy, leading to a deeper and more prolonged downturn than we have ever seen.

2.6. A World Divided: The Rise of Extremism and Civil Unrest

Society is becoming increasingly divided, with trust in governments, media, and institutions reaching historic lows. Political polarization has paralyzed governments, making it nearly impossible to address pressing issues like climate change, inequality, and economic instability.

As misinformation spreads, people retreat into ideological echo chambers, reinforcing extreme beliefs and making cooperation harder. This leads to an environment where radical political movements gain traction, and democratic institutions weaken. Governments that fail to address public grievances risk mass protests, riots, and even authoritarian takeovers.

2.7. The Nuclear Timebomb: Civilization’s Final Gamble

Nuclear war is the most immediate and catastrophic danger to civilization. According to a study published by Nature, even a regional conflict, such as one between India and Pakistan, would kill tens of millions instantly and inject enough soot into the atmosphere to trigger a global famine, starving up to 2 billion people. A full-scale U.S.-Russia exchange would kill over 300 million in hours, with nuclear winter collapsing global food systems and leading to near-total human extinction within a decade.

The world has already come perilously close to disaster multiple times, narrowly avoiding nuclear war due to human intervention. But as geopolitical tensions rise, arms control agreements collapse, and AI systems increasingly influence military decisions, the risk of an unintended or miscalculated nuclear launch grows. If deterrence fails even once, civilization as we know it ends—and there will be no chance to rebuild.

The Final Warning: The End is Near

Economic, social, and technological forces are pushing civilization toward systemic failure. The world is facing a perfect storm of crises:

• Economic collapse is inevitable if debt-driven growth continues unchecked.
• Automation will deepen inequality, leaving millions jobless and hopeless.
• Political polarization and social fragmentation will make effective governance impossible.

We are no longer dealing with isolated problems—our entire civilization is approaching a breaking point. If we fail to act, the collapse of modern society is not just possible—it is inevitable.

3. The Leadership Illusion: Why No One Is Coming to Save Us

Leaders act in their own interest, and without a shift in priorities, meaningful change will always be postponed.

If the evidence is so overwhelming, why isn’t everybody on the case? The reason is actually very simple: our leaders have nothing to gain from doing so.

3.1. The Political Survival Game

Elected officials’ primary motivation is political survival. The only timeframe they care about is the next election date. As a result, politicians are more likely to address issues that can be solved quickly and visibly.

The crises we face today are neither simple nor short-term. Addressing them requires sustained efforts over decades, very likely requiring significant financial resources and possibly involving a period of uncertainty or economic downturn. No sane politician today would touch those issues with a 10-foot pole.

And so the necessary actions are postponed for the next administration, leaving it with an even more difficult and urgent challenge. The longer these problems are ignored, the harder they become to solve, creating a cycle of escalating crises that no single government wants to deal with.

Governments also have powerful incentives to protect industries that drive the economy, even when those industries are the very cause of the problem. Fossil fuels, for example, remain central to global energy systems. Keeping energy prices down supports economic activity, keeps voters satisfied, and prevents disruption to industries that provide jobs and tax revenue. That’s why in 2022 alone, the fossil fuel industry received $7 trillion in subsidies, which is more than global spending on education.

3.2. The Relentless Pursuit of Profit

Companies are legally and structurally obligated to prioritize financial returns over everything else. That means cutting costs, increasing sales, and maintaining business as usual for as long as possible.

Sustainability efforts are often presented as corporate responsibility, but in practice, they must align with profitability. Green initiatives are pursued only if they reduce costs, attract customers, or improve a company’s public image.

Fossil fuel companies continue drilling because oil and gas remain highly profitable. The fashion industry promotes sustainability campaigns while producing billions of garments that end up in landfills. Tech companies proudly showcase their recycling programs as they incorporate planned obsolescence into their product design to ensure continuous sales. These companies do not act out of malice but out of necessity—if they do not maximize returns, their investors will take their money elsewhere.

The idea that businesses will voluntarily drive systemic change goes against how markets function. As long as profits depend on continued growth and consumption, the economy will continue to push the planet beyond its limits.

3.3. Business and Government Keep Each Other in Check

Governments and businesses are deeply connected through financial and political ties, creating a relationship where their interests align. Winning elections requires massive funding, and businesses, through lobbying and political donations, ensure that candidates who favor their interests have the resources to succeed. Once in office, these elected officials are incentivized to protect the industries that helped them get there.

Lobbying is one of the most powerful tools businesses use to shape policies in their favor. Industries spend billions of dollars each year influencing lawmakers to maintain regulations that protect their profitability. In return, politicians secure campaign funding, favorable media coverage, and post-political career opportunities. This revolving door between corporate leadership and government positions ensures that major industries, especially those tied to energy, finance, and manufacturing, remain largely shielded from policies that could disrupt their operations.

This dynamic results in policy decisions that favor economic growth and corporate stability over environmental and social concerns. Governments hesitate to impose strict regulations on industries that fund their campaigns, and businesses continue to prioritize profits, knowing that political leaders will not push for radical changes that could impact economic performance. As a result, meaningful action is stalled, and the necessary structural changes are repeatedly postponed in favor of short-term stability.

4. The False Fixes: Why Our Current Solutions Will Fail

The solutions we cling to are band-aids on a broken system—they treat symptoms, not causes.

Many proposed solutions are important but fundamentally insufficient. They attempt to mitigate the damage without changing the underlying system that creates it.

4.1. The Green Energy Myth: Why Renewables Alone Won’t Save Us

Renewable energy is necessary, but it does not eliminate the problems caused by resource consumption. Solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries require vast amounts of raw materials, including lithium, cobalt, and rare earth metals. Mining these resources leads to environmental destruction, habitat loss, and pollution. Transitioning to renewables does not solve the issue of overconsumption. It simply shifts the pressure to new industries.

Efficiency improvements often lead to increased consumption rather than reductions. As technology becomes more efficient, demand tends to rise. Cheaper, cleaner energy often results in higher energy use, rather than conservation.

4.2. The Recycling Mirage: Why Waste Still Wins

Recycling is often promoted as a solution to waste, but in reality, most materials are not fully recyclable. For example, in 2019 only 15% of plastic waste was collected for recycling and only 9% was actually recycled. The rest ended up in landfills, oceans, or incinerators. By 2060, the use of plastics will almost triple. Yet, only 14% is expected to be recycled into new plastics.

The core issue is not how waste is managed but how much waste is produced in the first place. The global economy is built on mass production and disposable goods. Recycling programs allow consumers to feel they are making a difference, but they do not change the fact that the system depends on generating more waste every year.

4.3. Global Promises: Why Climate Agreements Fall Short

International climate agreements, such as the Paris Climate Accord, rely on voluntary commitments rather than enforceable policies. Countries set their own targets, but there are no real consequences for failing to meet them. As a result, emissions have continued to rise, despite decades of climate summits and negotiations.

The main reason climate agreements remain weak is that they do not challenge the core assumption that economic growth must continue. Countries promise to cut emissions, but only if doing so does not threaten economic expansion. This contradiction ensures that the most meaningful changes—reducing overall consumption and restructuring the economy—are never seriously considered.

The Sad Reality: If We Stay the Course, Collapse is Inevitable

For over half a century, humanity has consumed Earth’s resources at an unsustainable rate, exceeding the planet’s ability to regenerate. The consequences are no longer distant threats—they are unfolding now, in collapsing ecosystems, intensifying climate disasters, and growing instability. Six of the nine planetary boundaries have already been breached, and we are on the verge of irreversible tipping points that will lock us in catastrophe.

Simultaneously, our economic and social systems are failing. The global economy is built on infinite growth, a model that cannot coexist with a finite planet. AI-driven automation is upending industries faster than new jobs can emerge, and demographic shifts are undermining the labor force. Meanwhile, social cohesion is unraveling as inequality, polarization, and migration pressures escalate. Every pillar of our civilization is destabilizing simultaneously.

Governments remain paralyzed, shackled by the relentless demands of short-term election cycles, desperately clinging to a crumbling status quo to ensure their own survival. Corporations, intoxicated by short-term profits, would rather accelerate the collapse than sacrifice their bottom lines. Even the most well-intentioned solutions—green technology, carbon offsets, and recycling—are mere bandages on a wound too deep to heal through incremental change. We are not merely patching cracks in a dam—we are chiseling away at its foundations, oblivious to the flood rushing toward us.

The stark reality is that no amount of tweaking or reform can salvage this failing system. It is not a matter of policy adjustments or technological breakthroughs—we must explore a radically new approach that addresses the core contradictions of our current reality before collapse becomes inevitable.

Yet, even if we acknowledge that radical change is inevitable, one colossal challenge looms—so fundamental that it threatens to render every effort futile. What is this paradox, and why does it seem to defy every possible solution? That is the question I will explore in the next article of the series, The Impossible Task.