• How and when will the world end?

    Nuclear exchange is the most likely scenario. No other issue has the potential to destroy the entire human civilization in a matter of hours, and even small issues could theoretically escalate into a full-blown nuclear war.

    Nuclear exchange is the biggest threat to our civilization because it is:

    1. Unpredictable: A single, irrational decision could trigger a nuclear exchange, at any time.
    2. Immediate: A nuclear attack can be launched almost instantly. It literally takes just a push of a button.
    3. Irreversible: Once fired, the missiles cannot be recalled or shut down. There is no coming back.
    4. Global: The default response to a missile launch would be an immediate retaliatory strike, potentially by multiple parties.
    5. Escalatory: Even minor issues could escalate into full-blown wars, leading to the use of nuclear weapons.
    6. Existential: All countries of the world would be affected. At worst, a nuclear war could mean sudden and complete annihilation of the human race.

    The path which could lead problems, no matter how big or small, to escalate into a nuclear exchange is very simple:

    The Escalation Path (Chodak, 2024)

    Below are just a few examples:

    Climate change

    • Resource scarcity: Climate change can cause severe droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events, leading to the scarcity of vital resources like water and food. Nations may enter into conflicts over these scarce resources, potentially involving nuclear-armed states.
    • Mass migration: As certain areas become uninhabitable, mass migrations can occur, leading to tensions and conflicts in regions receiving large numbers of climate refugees. These conflicts can escalate, drawing in nuclear powers.

    Inequality

    • Social unrest: Significant economic disparities can lead to social unrest and political instability. Disenfranchised populations may revolt, leading to internal conflicts that could spill over into international confrontations.
    • Revolution and war: Inequality can fuel revolutions and wars as marginalized groups fight for their rights and resources. If nuclear-armed states are involved, the risk of a nuclear exchange increases.

    Poverty

    • Desperation and radicalization: Extreme poverty can drive people to desperation and make them more susceptible to radical ideologies. This can lead to the rise of extremist groups that may engage in terrorism or provoke international conflicts.
    • State failure: Poor nations might face state failure, creating power vacuums that can be exploited by militant groups. These situations can lead to conflicts involving neighboring countries, some of which might possess nuclear weapons.

    Aging population

    • Economic strain: An aging population can strain a country’s economy and healthcare system, leading to generational conflicts over resources and social policies.
    • Political instability: As the burden of supporting an aging population grows, political instability can increase. Younger populations may feel the pressure and respond with social unrest, potentially leading to internal or even international conflicts.

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